Coronavirus will push China’s GDP growth far beyond US, study shows

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As the world continues to witness a surge in the COVID positive cases, the deadly virus will push China even more to the forefront.

According to data by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the proportion of worldwide growth coming from China is expected to increase from 26.8% in 2021 to 27.7% in 2025.

That is more than 15 and 17 percentage points, respectively, higher than the US share of expected global output.

India, Germany and Indonesia would round out the top five largest growth engines, next year. The fund now forecasts world GDP to shrink 4.4% this year, an improvement from the 4.9% drop seen in June, according to the latest World Economic Outlook released this week.

The IMF estimates China will grow by 8.2 per cent next year, down a full percentage point from the IMF’s April estimate but strong enough to account for more than one-quarter of global growth.

The US is expected to rally to a 3.1 per cent increase which will account for 11.6 per cent of global growth in 2021 in purchasing power parity terms, a report by NDTV said.

By 2025, the cumulative loss in output relative to the pre-pandemic projected path is projected to grow to $28 trillion.

“While the global economy is coming back, the ascent will likely be long, uneven, and uncertain,” Gita Gopinath, IMF’s director of research, wrote in the report.

The five nations with the highest COVID death counts — US, Brazil, India, Mexico and UK — are forecast to suffer a total GDP decline of nearly $1.8 trillion in nominal terms and $2.1 trillion after having been adjusted for differences in purchasing power, data mentions, according to NDTV.

As per the IMF data, extreme poverty is set to rise for the first time in more than two decades, and persistent output losses imply a major setback to living standards versus the pre-pandemic days.

Approximately 90 million people are expected to fall into extreme deprivation this year. In January this year, before the coronavirus began spreading widely, the IMF estimated 3.3% global growth and 3.4% in 2021. Russia, the ninth-largest contributor of the total growth in 2021, is poised to move up to fifth in five years as Germany’s economic growth slows.


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