Explainer
Explained: Syrian opposition groups’ surprise offensive against Assad
Syrian opposition groups, including the Syrian National Army (SNA) and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a surprise offensive, capturing significant government-held areas. The campaign seized large swathes of territory, including Aleppo, Syria’s largest city.
Why it matters: The capture of Aleppo and the ongoing push to seize Hama, Syria’s fourth-largest city, have dealt a major blow to Bashar al-Assad’s government and its backers, Iran and Russia.
- Aleppo, a strategic hub linking Syria’s largest city to the capital and the coast, has been a key battleground between opposition forces and Assad’s regime since the 2011 uprising.
- The battle for Aleppo ended in 2016, leaving the city under Assad’s control with support from Iran and Russia
- Iran has previously deployed thousands of troops and established several military bases including the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah.
- Arab nations had begun the rehabilitation of Assad, attempting to end years of his isolation after Syria’s civil war began.
What’s happening: The insurgents’ swift offensive has blindsided Assad’s forces, seizing Aleppo with minimal resistance. They’re now pushing toward Hama and targeting Kurdish-controlled areas in northeastern Syria, while government troops and allies scramble to regain control.
What triggered it: In 2020, Russia and Türkiye agreed to a ceasefire in Idlib which displaced nearly a million people in three months. But the ceasefire has been repeatedly violated by Assad’s forces supported by Russia and Iran-backed militias including in October this year.
Apart from Assad’s fragile control, Syria has been teetering towards an economic collapse due to unpaid debts to foreign allies, Western sanctions, and the fallout from Lebanon’s banking system collapse, which is a key financial hub for Syrian businesses.
The players:
- Hayat-e-Tahrir-Sham (HTS) is based in Idlib and is reportedly backed by Türkiye. They emerged as a conglomerate of several groups and have been fighting Assad’s forces. They are designated as a ‘terror group’ by the United States.
- Abu Mohammad al-Julani spearheads the current offensive. He formed Jabhat-al-Nusra in 2012, broke away from Al Qaeda in 2016 and then formed HTS who run the Idlib governorate which is home to thousands of displaced Syrians.
- Syrian National Army (SNA) is a coalition of various armed Syrian opposition groups including the Free Syrian Army. It was established in 2017 with the backing of Türkiye and has at least 25,000 fighters, according to conservative estimates.
- Syrian president Bashar al Assad is supported by Iran and Russia who have backed him in the current offensive.
- Türkiye maintains a significant presence in Northern Syria with troops deployed and controls parts of the north-west alongside opposition groups near Idlib. Domestically, it faces challenges as host to over 5 million Syrian refugees, a contentious issue for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Efforts for reconciliation, such as Iraq-brokered talks with Damascus, have stalled due to Assad’s rejection of refugee returns and continued assaults on Idlib, driving more refugees toward Türkiye’s border. Türkiye reportedly supports and trains the Syrian National Army (SNA) while opposing US-backed Kurdish groups like the YPG and SDF, viewing them as threats. Ankara has also urged a resolution to the political process between the Syrian regime and the opposition.
Who is saying what:
- Syrian government: Assad in his first remarks about the offensive said that his forces will “defend its stability and territorial integrity against terrorists and their supporters.” Assad has since launched airstrikes in rebel-controlled areas in Idlib and Aleppo.
- Syrian National Army: SNA along with its partners have launched two operations Operation Deter Aggression and Operation Freedom Dawn that ‘aims to liberate occupied territories, protect civilians, and restore the rights of displaced Syrians to return to their homes.’
- Iran and Russia: Both Syrian allies have backed Assad’s government.
- Türkiye: Ankara has continued its military offensive in Kurdish-held territories in Syria while reportedly backing Syrian opposition groups which it has trained over the years. Its foreign ministry maintained that its ‘prime concern is preserving stability in Syria’s Idlib and the area close to it.”
- United States: The White House in its statement said that it had ‘nothing to do with the current with this offensive.’ While also blaming Assad’s refusal to engage in the political process outlined in UNSCR 2254, and its reliance on Russia and Iran for resulting it the collapse of its control in the country. US-supported YPG/SDF Kurdish groups are also battling SNA in the control of another important city called Tel Rifaat which which will re-open and secure the Turkish city Gaziantep and Aleppo highway, a major trade route.Reports indicate that US-led coalition forces have conducted airstrikes at the Syria-Iraq border, targeting Iran-backed Iraqi militia Hashd al-Shaabi as they entered Syria to support Assad. Additional raids reportedly struck IRGC bases in Deir Ezzor, aiming to curb Iranian influence and reinforcements in the region.
- United Arab Emirates: Abu Dhabi has been leading the rehabilitation of Assad and has ‘affirmed UAE’s support for the Syrian state.’
Zoom Out:
Since 2011, Syrian opposition groups have sought to oust Assad, but stalemates often resulted due to Iran and Russia’s support. However, with Assad’s key allies’ positions now weakened, this phase of the prolonged conflict could prove decisive
Iran and Russia, key backers of Assad controlling over 60% of Syria, now face their challenges. Tehran is reeling from Israeli strikes that have targeted its commanders and bases in Syria and Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon. Russia is stretched thin by the war in Ukraine and its support for Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar.
Since Syria’s 2011 uprising, the civil war has claimed an estimated 500,000 lives and over 6.8 million people have been forced to flee the country.
