Oil market recovery may take months even if Hormuz reopens, says Russia

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has said the global oil market may take several months to stabilise even if the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

In an interview with VGTRK, Novak noted that the ongoing crisis in West Asia has created a significant imbalance in global energy supply, resulting in a shortage that cannot be resolved quickly.

He stressed that a substantial volume of oil shipments failed to reach international markets during the disruption, compounding the strain on supply chains.

Novak said a backlog of oil tankers has built up in the Strait of Hormuz, further complicating efforts to restore normal trade flows. Even if maritime traffic resumes immediately, he indicated that the process of clearing the congestion and rebalancing supply and demand would take time.

The disruption follows the conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran that began on February 28, during which Tehran asserted control over the strait — a critical passage for global oil shipments, particularly affecting Asian economies dependent on imported energy.

Although the conflict is currently on pause and diplomatic efforts are underway to secure a lasting resolution, Novak cautioned that the effects on the oil market would persist well beyond any immediate ceasefire or reopening of the waterway.

He described the crisis as “deep,” pointing to the cumulative impact of halted shipments and logistical bottlenecks. According to Novak, the market must gradually adjust as delayed cargoes are delivered and production and distribution networks return to equilibrium.

The Strait of Hormuz handles a significant share of the world’s oil exports, and any disruption there has immediate global repercussions. Analysts have already flagged concerns over price volatility and supply insecurity, especially in energy-importing nations.

Novak’s remarks underline the longer-term consequences of geopolitical tensions on global energy markets, suggesting that even a resolution on the ground will not translate into immediate economic normalcy.