Iran has begun evacuating its military commanders and officials from Damascus, according to The New York Times.
The report, citing Iranian officials, confirms that members of the Quds Force, the elite external operations branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, have also been pulled out.
Evacuations reportedly started Friday, with families returning to Iran.
Meanwhile, Syrian opposition forces have launched a rapid offensive, capturing vast territories.
They now control Aleppo and Hama, Syria’s two largest cities, while Homs is on the brink of falling.
The developments mark a significant escalation in the conflict, threatening the Assad regime’s stronghold.
Why It Matters: Iran has been Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s most steadfast ally, a relationship rooted in its support for his father, Hafez al-Assad, since the 1980s.
Tehran played a pivotal role in preventing Assad’s collapse in 2013, deploying commanders like Qassem Soleimani to orchestrate military strategy.
Iran also mobilised Shiite militias from Afghanistan and Pakistan to reinforce Assad’s forces during the civil war.
Now, Iran’s evacuation signals a major shift, suggesting diminishing confidence in Assad’s ability to hold Damascus amid the rebel onslaught.
Other allies, including Russia, Iraq, and China, have also ordered their citizens to leave Syria, underlining the growing instability and risk of regime collapse.
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Israel, Jordan, and Egypt have raised alarms with the United States over the shifting dynamics, Axios reports. Israel has reinforced defences along the occupied Golan Heights, anticipating potential spillover.
Russia, Assad’s key ally, appears to be stepping back, with Bloomberg quoting a Kremlin official saying Moscow has “no plan” to rescue the regime.
Iraq has called for a diplomatic resolution, though influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has cautioned against foreign military intervention.
Türkiye, on the other hand, is fully backing the rebel offensive. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has stated that the goal is “Damascus,” reinforcing Ankara’s long-standing support for the opposition.
Türkiye has played a crucial role since 2011, providing training, funding, and advising the Syrian National Army, which is leading the current push against Assad’s forces.
Concern: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group spearheading the offensive against Assad, complicates the geopolitical picture.
Designated a terrorist organisation by the United States, HTS has a controversial history, with past ties to Al-Qaeda and Daesh leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
However, its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani—now using his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa—broke away from both groups and has engaged in battles with them.
Sharaa has since positioned HTS as a localised movement, governing 4.5 million people in north-west Syria under the “Salvation Government.”
In a CNN interview, he pledged that HTS would dissolve once the war ends, but questions remain about his future role in post-conflict Syria.
Deadline: With Assad’s army suffering consecutive defeats, his regime faces dwindling options for recovery without the backing of key allies.
In a bid to address the escalating crisis, the foreign ministers of Türkiye, Iran, and Russia are convening in Doha under the Astana Process framework, which aims to negotiate a political resolution to Syria’s 13-year-long conflict.
