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New Zealand Central Bank Warns Higher Oil Prices Could Lift Near-Term Inflation

Reserve Bank of New Zealand building in Wellington. 10 March 2026[Panamitsu/Wikimedia]

New Zealand’s central bank has warned that ongoing rises in global oil prices could see near-term inflation rise beyond previous forecasts, adding to risks facing the country’s economic recovery.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Gov, in notes from a speech in Dunedin on Tuesday, Anna Breman said the recent rise in oil prices and higher long-term interest rates reflected a challenging global environment.

“If higher oil prices persist, they are expected to result in somewhat higher near-term inflation than we assumed in the September statement,” Breman said, according to Reuters.

The RBNZ raised its official cash rate by 25 bps to 2.75% at its September policy meeting. It predicted annual consumer price inflation would ease to 3.9% in the September quarter from 4.1% in the previous quarter.

The economic recovery was expected to strengthen, supported by exports and a gradual rise in household spending, Breman said.

Ahead of its next policy decision on Oct. The bank will mull over incoming economic data and world developments. 28, said Breman.

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