Can Ruhullah succeed where earlier NC rebels failed?

Ruhullah’s departure recalls decades of National Conference rebellions and raises fresh questions about political fragmentation in the valley

Senior editor Bashir Manzar has seen this political excitement before.

As a wave of popular support gathers around Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, Manzar of Kashmir Images has drawn a parallel with Shah Faesal, the blue-eyed bureaucrat whose social-media exploits made him a political sensation in the run-up to the 2019 downgrading of the erstwhile princely state.

Faesal’s popularity prompted him to quit the civil service and launch his own political party.

With comrade-turned-lecturer Shehla Rashid by his side, many saw the 2010 IAS poster boy as a fresh face in Kashmir politics. But the public excitement soon outpaced the party he had built.

After a brief spell in an open-air prison following the abrogation of Article 370, and growing disillusionment with his own political campaign, the Lolab lad returned to the civil service, this time taking up a posting in New Delhi.

Ruhullah’s situation is different, but Manzar’s comparison has gained relevance as his exit from the National Conference turns into a major political development in the valley of frozen politics.

The Lok Sabha Speaker has accepted his resignation from the Srinagar parliamentary seat, bringing his tenure in Parliament to an end. His resignation from the party has also closed a 24-year association with the organisation in which he began his political career.

Talk of a new political front has since gathered pace, although Ruhullah has spoken of building an organised movement rather than announcing a party.

The difference between a movement and a political organisation may prove important.

A movement can gather around a grievance, a public figure or a shared sense of betrayal. An electoral organisation must do more.

It needs people who can work beyond a leader’s public appearances, a programme that can hold together different constituencies and a structure capable of surviving the first test at the ballot box.

Political analyst Javed Khan believes Ruhullah faces a difficult road.

“The National Conference has weathered rebellions by prominent leaders, some of whom once commanded considerable influence within the party,” Khan said. “Their departures generated attention, but few managed to take the party’s wider support base with them.”

Ruhullah has an identifiable constituency and a strong public profile, Khan suggests. “The challenge will be to turn that support into an organisation with a life of its own.”

Political science researcher Bilkis Hameed places the present rupture within that longer history.

Mirza Mohammad Afzal Beg, Shamim Ahmad Shamim and Abdul Rashid Kabli all left the National Conference at different points, holding political experience, public recognition and, in Beg’s case, a long association with NC founder and fountainhead, Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah.

“Their departures did not produce an alternative capable of matching the party’s reach,” Bilkis said.

Beg had been among Sheikh Abdullah’s closest associates. Their differences deepened in 1978, prompting Beg to resign as deputy chief minister and later form the Inquilabi National Conference.

The new outfit never acquired the political weight Beg had enjoyed beside Sheikh Abdullah.

“Shamim, a parliamentarian, journalist and editor of Aaina, brought an intellectual reputation and a distinctive public voice to his politics,” Bilkis continued. “His departure, too, failed to produce a lasting political institution. Later, Kabli’s exit did little to alter the National Conference’s broader electoral position.”

The most dramatic split came in 1984, when Ghulam Mohammad Shah broke away with a group of NC defectors and toppled his brother-in-law, Dr Farooq Abdullah, to become chief minister.

Devi Das Thakur was among the principal figures in the breakaway government and served as deputy chief minister. Shah’s government fell in 1986. The political formation around him gradually disappeared, while the National Conference endured.

Ghulam Hassan Mir, Dilawar Mir and other leaders also moved away from the party without creating an organisation that could replace its wider footprint.

There are important exceptions to this record. Saifuddin Soz went on to a substantial career in the Congress and served in the Union government. Devender Singh Rana, a prominent National Conference leader from Jammu, resigned in 2021 with Surjit Singh Slathia and joined the BJP. He won the 2024 Assembly election from Nagrota by 30,472 votes. Rana’s success, however, came after he entered another large political organisation.

“Leaving a major party can be easier when another established party is ready to receive a leader,” Bilkis stated.

But political observer Syed Zameer believes Ruhullah has an advantage that many earlier defectors did not possess.

“He is now among the few prominent mainstream politicians speaking consistently about the consequences of the 2019 decision to revoke Jammu and Kashmir’s special status,” Zameer said.

“His criticism of the National Conference has focused on its failure, in his view, to sustain the promises on which it sought votes in 2024. The demand for the restoration of Article 370 and the protection of constitutional rights gives him a political position that remains important to many voters.”

That position has developed through a series of public disagreements.

Ruhullah first came into open conflict with the party leadership over the reservation policy, when he supported students protesting the existing arrangement. His criticism then widened to the National Conference’s approach to special status, statehood and its dealings with the BJP-led Centre.

He argued that the party had campaigned on fighting for Article 370 but softened its position after returning to power.

His remarks in Baramulla in August were particularly direct.

Jammu and Kashmir, he said, had repeatedly lost political ground, from statehood to Article 370, and had gained little since the beginning of its political history.

In October, he challenged the government and party leadership to explain what they had done to reverse the August 5, 2019, decision. He also questioned their record on jobs, reservation, electricity, prisoners and the protection of local rights.

The break became final at a gathering in Budgam on November 3, held on the 26th death anniversary of his father, Aga Syed Mehdi.

Ruhullah announced his departure from the National Conference and Parliament, accusing the party of abandoning its electoral commitments.

He said he could no longer remain part of what he described as a betrayal of public trust. Before the gathering, he had stated that the formation of a political party was not occupying his mind. His immediate aim, he said, was to build an organised movement and bring people with political character, honesty and compassion into public life.

National Conference has mounted a forceful defence of its record and questioned Ruhullah’s own conduct.

The party statement accused him of self-obsession and argued that he had resigned only after being asked to leave by the party president.

It recalled that he remained a minister after the 2010 unrest, contested the 2014 Assembly election on a National Conference ticket and raised his objections to that period only much later. The party also pointed to his initial welcome for the Assembly resolution on special status passed on November 6.

The party’s criticism also questioned his conduct in Parliament. It noted that Ruhullah had gathered the signatures of more than 100 MPs for an impeachment motion against Allahabad High Court judge Shekhar Kumar Yadav, but had not mobilised similar support for restoring special status or statehood.

It also defended its handling of the reservation issue, saying a cabinet subcommittee had proposed corrective measures but the file had been held up by authorities beyond the elected government’s control.

The party accused Ruhullah of failing to challenge the Centre and the Lieutenant Governor over that delay and the limits imposed on the elected government.

At a press conference in Srinagar on November 4, National Conference MLA Salman Sagar went further, accusing the BJP of engineering Ruhullah’s exit as part of what he called “Operation Lotus”.

He described the departure as unfortunate for the party and the people of Jammu and Kashmir, but insisted that one individual leaving would not weaken its political mission.

Sagar cited the 1998 autonomy resolution, the Omar Abdullah cabinet’s resolution on special status and statehood at its first meeting, and subsequent Assembly resolutions as evidence that the party had not abandoned its position.

Sagar also argued that Ruhullah should have stayed within the organisation and challenged its leadership. “Staying inside and raising questions is true leadership,” he said.

His colleague Sajad Shaheen defended the party’s response to open-merit concerns, saying the cabinet subcommittee had submitted its report on June 25, 2025, before it was sent to the Lieutenant Governor. Shaheen questioned why Ruhullah had not directed his criticism at the BJP over the delay. He also sought an explanation for BJP leader Ram Madhav’s reported claim that the Budgam gathering had the blessings of his party and its supporters.

Sagar criticised Ruhullah for drawing the families of people killed during earlier periods of unrest into the dispute, referring to the resignation letter being sent through the father of slain youth Tufail Mattoo. He said the sacrifices of those killed should remain outside political quarrels.

The exchange has made the split more bitter, while leaving little room for the internal reconciliation that might once have been possible.

Zafar Choudhary, a prominent political analyst of Jammu and Kashmir, believes the NC leadership should have engaged Ruhullah and other dissenters through an internal committee instead of allowing the disagreement to become a public test of authority.

“Under the Union Territory arrangement,” he added, “the National Conference remains an important buffer between people and the powers of the Centre. A weakened party could leave the wider political field more fragmented.”

Professor Noor Ahmad Baba, a well-known political scientist of the valley, also regards Ruhullah’s departure as a serious setback for the National Conference.

“Younger voters and sections of its core support may gravitate towards him because of his positions on reservation, special status and statehood,” Prof Baba explained. “But the size and reach of his independent constituency remain uncertain.”

Ruhullah won the 2024 Srinagar parliamentary election with 356,866 votes, or 52.85 per cent of the total, defeating his nearest rival by 188,416 votes. The National Conference, meanwhile, won 42 of the 90 Assembly seats.

The party’s organisation and symbol were part of the election that gave Ruhullah such a large mandate. A future contest will reveal how much of that support belongs to him personally.

A by-election to the Srinagar parliamentary seat is expected within six months. The National Conference, the Peoples Democratic Party and the Apni Party could all enter the contest. The National Conference has an advantage through its larger representation in the Assembly, while a multi-cornered race could create an opening for the PDP.

The history of the National Conference is full of leaders who left with political stature and discovered that their personal following did not automatically become an institution.

That history, political pundits say, does not absolve the party of its mistakes, or diminish the importance of dissent within it. A party that claims to speak for a public mandate cannot treat internal criticism as disloyalty.

Ruhullah’s departure also raises the prospect of another division in a political landscape where fragmentation has often weakened the collective influence of mainstream parties.

Interestingly, Bashir Manzar’s comparison with Shah Faesal brings the story back to the public excitement surrounding Ruhullah.

Faesal’s rise showed how quickly a popular figure can capture the imagination of a politically disenchanted audience. His subsequent journey showed how difficult it is to convert that attention into lasting electoral strength.

Manzar has left the outcome open. His closing words, “Fingers crossed,” carry the uncertainty of a political moment in which a new voice has emerged, but the organisation that might sustain it has yet to take form.