Experts warn of 3rd COVID wave this month in India, may peak in October

A Crematorium in Simapuri, Delhi.
A Crematorium in Simapuri, Delhi.

New Delhi: The anticipated third wave of the COVID pandemic is likely to hit India in August which may reach its peak in October when the country is expected to report less than 1,00,000 infections daily in the best-case scenario or nearly 1,50,000 in the pessimistic scenario, according to a study.

A research team led by professors Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad and Kanpur respectively said that the rise in coronavirus cases will push the third wave.

States with high caseloads, such as Kerala and Maharashtra, could “skew the picture”, Vidyasagar told an international news agency, Bloomberg, in an email.

Last month, Agrawal, who is also a scientist of a government of India panel tasked with modeling of COVID cases, had said that the possible third wave of coronavirus may see half the daily cases recorded during the second surge and it can hit its peak between October-November if COVID-appropriate behaviour is not followed.

Meanwhile, India reported 40,134 COVID cases and 422 deaths on Monday, as per data from the Health Ministry of India.

The daily count of cases has been over 40,000 for six consecutive days now. Kerala has been reporting over 20,000 cases during this period.

The total number of coronavirus cases has reached 3,16,95,958 while the overall death toll stands at 4,24,773. There are 4,13,718 active cases in the country at present. In Kerala, active cases have increased to 1.67 lakh.

As many as 3,08,57,467 people have recovered from the disease. Out of the 422 deaths recorded on Sunday, 162 were reported by Maharashtra and 56 by Kerala. Odisha reported 64 deaths.

A total of 47,22,23,639 vaccine doses have been administered in the country so far, the health ministry said. The total number of vaccine doses administered in the country also crossed the 47-crore.


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