The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has issued a stark warning about Gaza’s future, stating that it could take up to 350 years for Gaza’s economy to recover to its pre-2023 war levels if the genocide ends immediately and conditions returns to what they were before October 7.
In Gaza, Israel has killed more than 43,000 Palestinians, majority of them women and children in more than a year. The genocide started following a retaliatory attack by Hamas on Israel, which the Hamas said was in response to a decades-long occupational crimes committed by zionist forces.
Before the war, Gaza’s economy had already been severely weakened by years of blockade imposed by Israel and Egypt, political divisions between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, and four previous conflicts.
The ongoing strikes by Israel has caused unprecedented destruction across Gaza. Large sections of the territory, including entire neighbourhoods and critical infrastructure such as roads and hospitals, have been obliterated. Rubble, decomposing bodies, and unexploded ordnance are scattered throughout the area, creating additional dangers that must be addressed before any rebuilding can start.
Even under the most optimistic projections—such as a return to 10% annual growth, which is unlikely without significant investment and an end to restrictions on movement—the recovery process would take decades.
According to UNCTAD, under the growth trends seen between 2007 and 2022, it would take Gaza around 350 years just to restore its gross domestic product (GDP) to 2022 levels. Moreover, the report predicts that even if this level were reached, GDP per capita would continue to fall due to population growth.
The economic toll of the war is staggering. In January 2024, the World Bank estimated that $18.5 billion in damage had already been inflicted on Gaza’s economy, a figure nearly equivalent to the combined economic output of Gaza and the West Bank. This estimate came before even more intense Israeli ground operations later in the year, which caused widespread destruction in key areas, particularly in the southern city of Rafah.
A separate UN assessment conducted in September found that approximately 25% of all structures in Gaza had been destroyed or severely damaged. The report also noted that 66% of buildings, including more than 227,000 housing units, had sustained some level of damage.
According to the Shelter Cluster, an international coalition of aid providers, it would take 40 years to rebuild all the homes lost in the war under the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism, which was established after the 2014 conflict and operates under strict Israeli oversight.
