Exit polls signal tight Bengal race, NDA edge in Assam, UDF comeback in Kerala, mixed projections in Tamil Nadu

Kolkata: Exit polls for the 2026 elections present a mixed but largely competitive picture across states. In West Bengal, projections for the BJP vary sharply, ranging from 80 to 175 seats depending on the agency, with most indicating a strong performance. However, Axis My India has not released its figures, citing insufficient voter response. The contest in the state appears tight, with several pollsters suggesting a close fight between the TMC and BJP, while some give the BJP a slight edge.

In Tamil Nadu, most surveys indicate that MK Stalin-led DMK is likely to retain power, but a few projections have introduced uncertainty. Axis My India has suggested that actor Vijay’s party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), could emerge as the single-largest party with 98 to 120 seats, while JVC has projected the NDA alliance as the largest formation. Despite these forecasts, TVK leaders remain confident, asserting that Vijay will form the government with a clear majority.

In Kerala, exit polls point towards a return of the UDF, with most agencies placing it between 70 and 90 seats. The ruling LDF is expected to fall short of a majority, while the NDA continues to remain a marginal player in the state.

Assam appears to favour the NDA, with projections indicating a comfortable majority for the alliance, often in the range of the high 60s to around 100 seats. The Congress-led alliance is expected to trail significantly, suggesting limited competition.

In Puducherry, exit polls also give the NDA an advantage in the 30-seat assembly, with the DMK-Congress alliance trailing behind. Overall, while trends suggest clear leads in some states, variations across agencies mean the final outcome remains uncertain until official results are declared.