America’s involvement in Iran can open a can of worms which would be hard for them to contain
The United States’ prolonged fixation with Iran is neither new nor surprising. What is worrying, however, is the growing momentum toward yet another geopolitical gamble, one that, if pursued, could unlock consequences far more devastating than the American public has been made to imagine.
What lies ahead is not a prelude to peace or security, but the unlocking of yet another can of worms and unlike Iraq or Libya, this time, the costs may not be containable.
Every war has a prologue, and for Iran and the United States, that prologue is written in the oily ink of 1953.
The CIA-engineered coup that toppled Mohammad Mossadegh’s government was not merely a “Cold War tactic.”
It was a well-measured and blunt betrayal of democracy in favour of imperial economic interests. Mossadegh was probably punished for daring to act his own way to nationalise Iran’s oil and threatening the profits of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company.
In reaction, Operation Ajax was initiated at the behest of America and with it, a chain reaction of distrust, disillusionment, and vengeance also came in motion.
Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, installed and propped up by Washington, became a symbol of foreign subservience. His reign was marked by explicit and morbid extravagance and brutal repression which was enforced and sustained through the infamous SAVAK, the regime’s iron-fisted secret police.
To many Iranians, America wasn’t the beacon of democracy; it was rather the iron hand behind their tormentor.
So, when the Islamic Revolution culminated in 1979, the storming of the U.S. embassy didn’t just indicate a diplomatic crisis but catharsis for the Iranians.
Since then, relations have vacillated between frigid stand-offs and near-war fever.
The Iran-Iraq War saw Washington lend quiet support to Saddam Hussein, despite his shoddy record as an administrator and his treatment of minorities.
The Iraq invasion in later in 2003 only handed Tehran more leverage in Baghdad and then came the JCPOA, a fragile yet functional deal that President Trump’s administration, in a stroke of ideological arrogance, abandoned in 2018. Trust has not only eroded, it has calcified into contempt between the two countries.
Washington’s playbook for its critics has become very predictable by now.
Frame the enemy as irrational, invoke threats of “terrorism” or “nuclear proliferation,” and then roll the dice.
What remains missing in such missions is the legal foundation.
The UN Charter is unequivocal in clearly stating that, “No state may use force against another except in self-defence or with Security Council authorization (UN Charter, Article 2(4); Article 51).”
Iran has not launched an armed attack on the U.S. nor has the Security Council given a green light for an attack on Iran.
Yet, a narrative is being formulated to pave the way for an all-out invasion on Iran.
It is accused of inching towards the realisation of a nuclear weapon and conveniently ignores its status as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which permits nuclear research under international oversight.
The IAEA has monitored Iran’s nuclear facilities for years, and no evidence of a weapons program has been definitively presented (IAEA Reports, 2016–2022). Meanwhile, Israel, an undeclared nuclear power, remains outside the NPT altogether and its aggressive ambitions and expeditions are seldom mentioned in the mainstream media to suit their narratives.
There is no outrage against Israel and no Western power calls for its nuclear disarmament.
America’s entanglements abroad are now perceived less about defense and more about dominance.
The idea that the U.S. must “lead the free world” has outlived its post-war relevance and is seen as a modern manifestation of an empire which is on an expedition to colonise sovereign independent states.
The world today has gone beyond the facets of bipolarity and unipolarity and ushered into a multipolar era with countries like China, and Russia ready to stake the claim and announce a multipolar world and lead coalitions which no longer fear the American wrath and are fully capable of operating on their own with their self-interests and writ as global powers.
Washington is yet to wake up and smell the coffee, it continues to behave like the last sheriff in a lawless world.
Even from a realist point of military strategy, America seems to have lost the plot. Threats of a war against Iran ignores the regional web Tehran commands.
From Hezbollah in Lebanon to militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen, Iran is not isolated.
Any American move would almost certainly unleash regional retaliation, choking the Strait of Hormuz and triggering oil shocks globally.
This isn’t conjecture. This is a precedent, Iraq was sold on lies. Weapons of mass destruction were never found yet hundreds of thousands died. ISIS was born in the rubble.
Libya? A failed state now over run by warlords.
Syria? Still bleeding from foreign-fuelled proxy wars and a new regime yet to be tested in maintaining and sustaining the fragile ecosystem of the country.
The body bags have piled up in millions, but the lessons are not learnt.
The most dangerous fallacy in U.S. strategic thinking is probably the belief that Iran can be taken down like Iraq. It cannot. It is larger, more populous, and far more coherent as a state.
Iran’s military is capable, its intelligence services seasoned, and its population despite internal dissent is historically united against foreign aggression.
Airstrikes or sanctions will not trigger regime change. They will only embolden the very “hardliners” the U.S. claims to oppose.
War with Iran wouldn’t stop at Iran and it would most likely spill over beyond the borders of the country.
Israel has made it clear that it will not tolerate Iranian entrenchment in Syria. Tel Aviv’s military, already active in the region, could escalate, dragging Lebanon’s Hezbollah into the fray and with it, civilian cities and regional capitals will keep getting reduced to rubbles.
Saudi Arabia, for its part, might cheer lead from the side lines. But Riyadh knows it’s playing with fire.
The Gulf monarchies, despite their petrodollars, are structurally fragile. Another war on their doorstep could unravel the very order they’ve spent decades bribing into existence.
This is the real danger, a single miscalculation could spark a chain of retaliations too complex to control, plunging the region into yet another inferno.
Amid such a situation, the United States must decide what kind of power it wishes to be.
The post-9/11 script, invade, destabilise, exit has outlived its expiry date. The world remembers Fallujah. It remembers Mosul, it remembers Tripoli and Aleppo. What it does not remember is American accountability.
Militarily engaging Iran won’t just be reckless. It will be the moral collapse of a superpower already teetering on the edge of global legitimacy.
For once, strategic restraint would not be a sign of weakness but of wisdom.
Because if this Pandora’s box is opened, there won’t be an American President to close it and there won’t be a world willing to believe that America ever actually meant well for global peace and democracy.
